Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.502917 2.665782 2.839233 3.038636 3.262721 3.508167 3.799286
2025-03-16 2.262834 2.483368 2.730760 3.032060 3.393666 3.819858 4.369922
2025-03-23 2.130009 2.387420 2.687144 3.068244 3.549687 4.152287 4.989489
2025-03-30 1.993570 2.267576 2.595138 3.024883 3.589124 4.329385 5.422167
2025-04-06 1.882516 2.166391 2.512995 2.979551 3.612331 4.477186 5.826197
2025-04-13 1.774803 2.060490 2.414955 2.901670 3.578946 4.535897 6.099548
2025-04-20 1.726216 2.024709 2.402106 2.932729 3.694525 4.816582 6.764236
2025-04-27 1.693287 2.005921 2.408554 2.988177 3.847232 5.169063 7.621395
2025-05-04 1.662040 1.986762 2.412083 3.037976 3.994171 5.530049 8.582203
2025-05-11 1.607866 1.934040 2.366313 3.012385 4.021174 5.693779 9.198781
2025-05-18 1.560034 1.887379 2.325975 2.991137 4.051608 5.865282 9.876337
2025-05-25 1.514649 1.841908 2.284691 2.965110 4.070803 6.017463 10.554086
2025-06-01 1.472210 1.799472 2.246602 2.942901 4.096707 6.190594 11.356162
2025-06-08 1.438069 1.767119 2.221306 2.938604 4.152349 6.429452 12.425583
2025-06-15 1.417626 1.752849 2.221130 2.973122 4.278104 6.829245 14.144661
2025-06-22 1.377422 1.709123 2.175644 2.932002 4.263962 6.932383 15.002937
2025-06-29 1.339187 1.666900 2.130629 2.888972 4.242414 7.016121 15.846652
2025-07-06 1.294804 1.614578 2.068671 2.814990 4.157459 6.946001 16.106665
2025-07-13 1.280096 1.604335 2.069343 2.844503 4.270395 7.350530 18.482133
2025-07-20 1.272017 1.603233 2.083541 2.897162 4.432912 7.908420 22.107600
2025-07-27 1.262876 1.600145 2.094360 2.944428 4.589596 8.490411 26.726191
2025-08-03 1.237270 1.571988 2.065123 2.920142 4.596975 8.674964 29.310260
2025-08-10 1.213846 1.546410 2.039015 2.899973 4.611210 8.882814 32.450325